Download PDF by Steven J. Brams: The Presidential Election Game, Second Edition
By Steven J. Brams
The Presidential Election Game could switch how you take into consideration presidential elections and, for that topic, American politics usually. it's not full of statistics in regards to the balloting habit of voters, nor does it provide distinct histories of previous campaigns. fairly, it's an analytic therapy of technique within the race for the presidency, from the primaries to the overall election. utilizing glossy online game thought and determination conception, Brams demonstrates why yes crusade techniques are more suitable than others and helps his research with old facts.
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Extra info for The Presidential Election Game, Second Edition
For the vice-presidential contenders on the second ballot before the shift, Kefauver ✐ ✐ ✐ ✐ ✐ ✐ ✐ ✐ 36 Party Conventions could attract the 136 delegates necessary to win minimally in 203 136 ways. Since Kennedy, with 618 votes, needed 69 of the 203 “other” delegates to win with a bare majority, he could attract the 69 delegates he needed to win minimally in 203 69 ways. Now calculate the probabilities that the two leading candidates could offer those “other” delegates not committed to either leading candidate of being in a minimal winning coalition.
From their assertion that delegates must support the eventual winner before he achieves a majority to gain the access necessary to press for future claims,10 it seems reasonable to infer that the delegates’ success in realizing these claims will be a function of their contributions to the candidate’s victory. To capture this notion of delegate contributions, define the probabilistic contribution that a set of delegates makes to a candidate’s chances of achieving victory as the amount by which they increment a candidate’s probability of winning from one ballot to the next.
4 suggested why many candidates are drawn into the presidential primaries. 9). Generally speaking, most primary challenges that have been mounted against an incumbent in recent presidential elections have been single-man crusades and can be viewed, therefore, as essentially two-candidate contests. On the other hand, when an incumbent does not run, the field opens up and many candidates are motivated to stake out claims at various points along the left-right continuum, as I showed earlier. To explain the entry of multiple candidates into primaries, I considered the contest for the nomination as if it were one election in which each candidate sought to maximize his vote total.
The Presidential Election Game, Second Edition by Steven J. Brams