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Get The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential PDF

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By John Sides, Lynn Vavreck

ISBN-10: 1400848008

ISBN-13: 9781400848003

"Game changer." We heard it such a lot of occasions throughout the 2012 U.S. presidential election. yet what truly made a distinction within the contest--and what was once simply hype? during this groundbreaking booklet, John aspects and Lynn Vavreck inform the dramatic tale of the election--with a major distinction. utilizing an strange "moneyball" strategy and drawing on vast quantitative information, they give the impression of being past the anecdote, folklore, and standard knowledge that regularly cross for election research to split what used to be really very important from what was once inappropriate. The Gamble combines this knowledge with the easiest social technological know-how study and colourful on-the-ground reporting, supplying the main exact and certain account of the election but written--and the single booklet of its kind.

In a brand new preface, the authors give some thought to where of The Gamble within the culture of presidential election experiences, its reception so far, and attainable paths for destiny social technology learn.

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Extra resources for The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election

Example text

8 The plan 16 Chapter 2 Obama ultimately put forward totaled $775 billion, divided among tax cuts, direct payments to state governments, and funding for infrastructure projects. It was crafted to appeal to both Democrats, who would support the outlays for state governments and for infrastructure, and Republicans and conservative Democrats, who would be attracted by tax cuts. Instead, the stimulus met resistance. This was the first sign of many that Obama’s campaign goal of bipartisan cooperation would rarely be realized.

Expected presidential approval for Obama among Democrats, independents, and Republicans. Republicans to predictions of what his approval rating would have been in each group based on the same data and factors we examined in the previous section. 5 illustrates, Obama’s approval rating tended to exceed expectations among Democrats and independents but not among Republicans. 5 points lower than expected among Republicans. This illustrates just how much more polarized are opinions of the president now than they were in the past.

His old-­fashioned scouts were skeptics of this approach, rejecting the data for what they “knew” in their gut to be true about players. Today, virtually every baseball team uses advanced statistical analyses to evaluate players, and moneyball has bled into other areas, including elections. More and more, campaigns are not relying on intuition but on data about what does and does not work to persuade and mobilize voters. The Obama campaign pushed further in this direction than any previous campaign.

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The Gamble: Choice and Chance in the 2012 Presidential Election by John Sides, Lynn Vavreck


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