Les Coleman's Risk Strategies PDF
By Les Coleman
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Additional resources for Risk Strategies
Thus it is appropriate to develop some conceptual framework about general trends in the frequency of corporate risks as a guide to systematic drivers. Let us start by quantifying risk at the global level using data on corporate crises and man-made disasters provided by Swiss Re (2007 and earlier years) in its annual paper entitled Natural Catastrophes and Man-made Disasters. 2 summarizes Swiss Re’s recent data. Since the mid 1990s, annual insured costs have fluctuated in the range $US (2006) 10–110 billion, with an annual average of $US6 billion for man-made disasters and $US26 billion for natural catastrophes (largely storms, earthquakes and floods).
An important corollary of the assumption that decision makers’ risk propensity leads them to focus on different decision parameters is that they do not have a continuous utility function as assumed in many standard decision models. Reference Levels Another group of transient influences on decision makers’ perspective are reference levels: these establish breakeven points for success/failure adequate/inadequate and can be markers of abrupt shifts in risk attitudes. Reference levels encompass the essence of risk-sensitive foraging which is that decision makers alter their risk preference around a satisficing level, or endowment which meets requirements at the time.
Conversely when the required result is greater than the expected outcome, the only chance of achieving an acceptable result is to shift to the risky course with high variance. Risk-sensitive foraging clearly shares much in common with PT as it explains how risk propensity rises as wealth (food) falls below a reference (survival) level. We shall also see that it can explain the behaviours of organizations. Why Do Managers Take Risks? The influence of risk propensity on decision making can be expressed simply.
Risk Strategies by Les Coleman