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By David L. Leal (auth.)
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Extra info for Electing America’s Governors: The Politics of Executive Elections
Specifically, the growth of state per capita income in the year before the election was only weakly correlated with the election outcome, while the various permutations of state per capita income, national per capita income, state and national unemployment rates, and the difference between state and national per capita income growth were all uncorrelated. He concluded: “The major finding of this study is that state economic conditions exert only a weak influence on the outcome of gubernatorial elections” (189).
Only a few projects have attempted to understand whether issues affect election outcomes by analyzing individual-level surveys, and none have used aggregate data. ” Cook, Jelen, and Wilcox (1994) analyzed exit polls in ten states and found that abortion was a significant predictor of vote choice in nine. In addition, Howell and Sims (1993) analyzed survey data on Louisiana voters. They found that the abortion issue’s influence could not be easily generalized, as it depended on specific electoral and contextual factors.
How do the second-stage regression results compare with those of other specifications? 2 presents the results for the basic Jacobson model. This simple model suggests that incumbent spending does not play a role in gubernatorial outcomes but that challenger spending does. As such, the results fall in line with Jacobson’s findings for congressional elections. 2 shows the results for the Patterson (1982) version of the Jacobson model and suggests that incumbent spending is not helpful for the incumbent.
Electing America’s Governors: The Politics of Executive Elections by David L. Leal (auth.)